I disagree with this kind of logic. I know it was just a general comment and you probably didn't invest all your energy in picking the words.
And this also is not addressed at you Duke, it's just general. My impression is that a lot of people have this preconceived notion that the outer borders of our technological capacity will keep growing exponentially. And by that logic, at some point in the future we will have found a way to make car engines that use a dl per 100 miles. We'll have cars that can travel in a million kilometres an hour. We will eventually have 2000-core CPUs with two hundred billion gazillion gigahertz on them, and regular household PCs will have 14448gb ram. I can go on. It's a naive and silly way to think of technological advances. Just because we came from one point and advanced to another point, that doesn't mean we can keep advancing infinitely. Everything has its limits, also technology and the universe. Which is why I think this research will hit the point where we have identified the genes that are related to aging, but where all our attempts at controlling them have failed.
And this also is not addressed at you Duke, it's just general. My impression is that a lot of people have this preconceived notion that the outer borders of our technological capacity will keep growing exponentially. And by that logic, at some point in the future we will have found a way to make car engines that use a dl per 100 miles. We'll have cars that can travel in a million kilometres an hour. We will eventually have 2000-core CPUs with two hundred billion gazillion gigahertz on them, and regular household PCs will have 14448gb ram. I can go on. It's a naive and silly way to think of technological advances. Just because we came from one point and advanced to another point, that doesn't mean we can keep advancing infinitely. Everything has its limits, also technology and the universe. Which is why I think this research will hit the point where we have identified the genes that are related to aging, but where all our attempts at controlling them have failed.
I remember back when VAG/Bugatti announced they were going to build a 1000hp/400 kmh car, everyone laughed and them and told them to gtfo. And they did it anyway.
I understand your point and your reasoning, though. And it's correct to some extent, when we look at the principle of diminutive returns.
Also, my first post (the one you replied to) wasn't meant to convey "I think'll within 30 years we'll be able to live half a millennium" either. What I meant with it is that it will take a long while before the science itself (whatever practical result it may have) could be properly put into use.
And "i think" or "i imagine" is all well and fluffy, but you and I are no scientists, are we? We're not the ones to judge.
You talked about the pitfall of thinking scientific gains will keep growing exponentially. Principally, you are correct. But I believe that thinking something is outright not possible is a much, much greater intellectual pitfall you want to avoid.
Preach said:
If you imagine a skin cell and all the atoms it consists of, and all the quarks that make up the nucleons of said atoms, and consider the fact that nucleons have a charge (or that a nucleon can behave in different ways depending on various factors, rather), then saying that "it's a gene" is a simplification of something that is larger than what we can understand. Considering this, I don't understand how a person can think we will be able to prolong life within X years. What is he basing his estimation on? It came from his ass.
This is just....are you high?